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Bringing a Knife to a Gunfight: Why Leaders Undercut Their Biggest Opportunities During Budget Season

Written by RED BEAR | Jan 20, 2026 10:54:20 PM

Budget season is supposed to be a strategic exercise. Too often, it becomes an exercise in constraint.

Across organizations, sales, procurement, operations, HR, finance, supply chain, and IT—leaders face the same tension every year: big problems, big opportunities, and surprisingly small thinking.

We see it repeatedly. Leaders identify initiatives capable of driving outsized improvements in margin, cost reduction, speed, resilience, and growth, then attempt to solve them with modest, incremental investments.

That is the equivalent of bringing a knife to a gunfight.

The Core Problem Isn’t Budget. It’s How Leaders Think About It.

If you have discovered a business solution that can generate 10x returns, it makes little sense to approach it with $250,000 thinking when the opportunity is worth $25 million.

Yet this happens constantly.

Leaders anchor on:

  • What’s in the budget

  • What we spent last year

  • What we can get approved

Instead of anchoring on:

  • The size of the opportunity

  • The cost of not acting

  • The return is available if the problem is solved correctly

Budgets are not neutral tools.
They reflect the level of ambition and confidence an organization has in its own performance.

The Biggest Budgeting Mistakes Leaders Make

Mistake #1: Treating the Budget as the Starting Point Instead of the Opportunity

Most budgeting conversations begin with constraints:

  • “What can we afford?”

  • “What’s already allocated?”

  • “What’s realistic this year?”

High-performing organizations start elsewhere:
“What outcome is possible—and what investment would unlock it?”

Starting with the budget guarantees conservative outcomes.

Mistake #2: Applying Small-Investment Logic to Large-Scale Problems

Organizations routinely underfund:

  • Margin pressure

  • Supplier risk

  • Pricing inconsistency

  • Customer value leakage

  • Internal misalignment

  • Ineffective decision-making

These are not small problems.
They are enterprise-level performance risks.

Attempting to solve them with minimal investment signals a deeper issue: leaders are trying to manage the problem rather than solve it.

Mistake #3: Overvaluing Budget Certainty and Undervaluing Return Certainty

Many leaders are more comfortable approving a small, predictable cost than a larger investment with a significantly higher and often more reliable return.

This creates a false sense of safety.

In reality:

  • Underinvestment is often riskier than overinvestment

  • Doing nothing is rarely neutral

  • Incremental action rarely produces transformational results

The Mindset Shift That Changes Everything

Here is the critical reframing:

If an initiative can pay for itself and then fund the next wave it is not a cost. It is a growth engine.

In our work, we consistently see organizations deploy capability-based initiatives that:

  • Recoup their full cost in a short period of time

  • Generate incremental returns well beyond the initial investment

  • Create funding for the next phase of improvement

At that point, the budget conversation changes completely.

Because the initiative is effectively zero-cost over time.

Why Traditional Budget Thinking Breaks Down

If we only worked with organizations that already had a predetermined budget for improvement, we wouldn’t be in business.

The most successful organizations we work with:

  • Did not start with a budget

  • Started with a performance problem or opportunity

  • Evaluated the initiative based on return, not line-item availability

Once leaders see that an initiative is self-funded, resistance disappears.

Budgets open up when leaders stop treating them as ceilings and start treating them as investment decisions.

Funding Huge Opportunities and Huge Problems is No Longer Optional

We are operating in an environment where:

  • Margins are under pressure

  • Buyers and suppliers are more sophisticated

  • Volatility is the norm

  • Execution gaps are punished quickly

This is not the time for cautious, incremental thinking.

It is the time to fund:

  • Huge opportunities

  • Huge problems worth solving

  • Capabilities that materially change performance

In many cases, an organization’s future performance—and sometimes its very existence—depends on it.

A Challenge for Leaders Entering Budget Season

As you head into budget discussions, ask yourself:

  • Am I sizing the investment to the budget—or to the opportunity?

  • What problems are we managing instead of solving because they feel “too big”?

  • What initiatives could fund themselves if we evaluated them on return rather than cost?

Bringing a knife to a gunfight is a choice.
So is thinking bigger.

The leaders who win are not the ones who spend the least. They are the ones who invest with clarity, confidence, and conviction—and let performance fund the rest.

 

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